An IMF study found that economic fundamentals such as growth in GDP, growth in working age population, and interest rates explained less than half of the house price changes seen in the countries studied.
The longer that I study economics, the more I believe that “economic fundamentals” don’t explain much in the macro arena. Just too much going on - too complex of a system - to be able to explain as much as we might try. I think I’ve given up on economics as a predictive field in any macro arena. It’s all so many guesses and hypothesis.
The longer that I study economics, the more I believe that “economic fundamentals” don’t explain much in the macro arena. Just too much going on - too complex of a system - to be able to explain as much as we might try. I think I’ve given up on economics as a predictive field in any macro arena. It’s all so many guesses and hypothesis.
Agreed!